Thursday, April 1, 2010

Baseball Keeper League Draft and Analysis.

Let me begin with this – I hate closers. In my opinion they are the fantasy equivalent of a football kicker. Doubt me? Look at K-Rod: Before last year he had save totals of 45, 47, 40 and 62, all with sub 3.00 ERA’s and 1.300 WHIP’s. Last year? 3.71/1.31/35 which equaled the 25th ranked relief pitcher last year (according to Yahoo rankings) and 14th in saves. 5 of the guys who finished ahead of him were available post draft on the waiver wire and for the exception of maybe Rivera/Paplebon, all were drafted way later than K-Rod. So, if you drafted a closer before the 6th to last round (or worse, wasted a keeper spot on one) I will eviscerate you in my report card.

HaveUSeenMyBaseball
1. (1) Brian McCann - keeper.
2. (20) Prince Fielder - keeper.
3. (21) Andre Ethier - keeper.
4. (40) Brandon Webb - keeper.
5. (41) Adam Wainwright - keeper.
6. (60) Grady Sizemore - keeper.
7. (61) Carl Crawford
8. (80) Robinson Canó
9. (81) Matt Cain
10. (100) John Lackey
11. (101) Jorge Cantú
12. (120) Andrew Bailey
13. (121) Jason Heyward
14. (140) Brian Fuentes
15. (141) Yunel Escobar
16. (160) Carlos Quentin
17. (161) Clay Buchholz
18. (180) Aroldis Chapman
19. (181) José López
20. (200) Brett Wallace

Great keepers have set you up well for a good season and the Crawford/Cano/Cain/Lackey 4 some that kicked off your draft should keep you in contention. Too bad you blew the draft with your Bailey/Fuentes picks. Seriously man? I had Fuentes last year and desperately tried to trade him. Sure, he had 47 saves but his peripherals were shit. And Bailey? He’s with the A’s…. they suck… you passed on Baker, CarGo, Edwin Jackson, and Kevin Slowey for a guy who’s lucky to get 25 saves on that shithole team. However, getting Yunel Escobar in the 15th round was either genius or luck. .300/20/85 with 10+ steals, 90+ runs and an OBP around .380. I almost took him over Andrus in the 9th round. GRADE: B-

Mom-ram
1. (2) Hanley Ramírez - keeper.
2. (19) Evan Longoria - keeper.
3. (22) Dustin Pedroia - keeper.
4. (39) Jake Peavy - keeper.
5. (42) David Price - keeper.
6. (59) Brian Wilson - keeper.
7. (62) Josh Johnson
8. (79) Justin Morneau
9. (82) Nick Markakis
10. (99) Hunter Pence
11. (102) Brett Anderson
12. (119) Carlos Lee
13. (122) Rafael Soriano
14. (139) Kevin Slowey
15. (142) Nyjer Morgan
16. (159) Ryan Doumit
17. (162) Shaun Marcum
18. (179) Brian Matusz
19. (182) Colby Rasmus
20. (199) Clayton Richard

I’m not sure what your other options were but your keeper trifuckta of Peavy, Price and …. fuck me…. Brian Kokomo Wilson does not give me confidence in your ability to get out of the basement this year. Peavy is now in the AL (and no longer in Petco Park) but really the issue is with Price and Wilson. You are kind of handcuffed with a guy like Price. Drop him and then see him dominate for someone else or keep him and have pitch mediocre for a whole season. Tough spot. And then there’s Wilson…. The Neil Rackers of Baseball. Moving on… Your first three picks were rock solid and I wouldn’t be surprised to see JJ become not only your best pitcher but a top 10-15 guy this year overall. I won’t even discuss Soriano. Slowey, Morgan and Marcum were great picks at their respective rounds. You really need all you sleepers (rasmus, matusz, marcum, price, slowey) to break out or you could be in for a long season. GRADE: D

Winfield Wants Noise
1. (3) Roy Halladay - keeper.
2. (18) Cliff Lee - keeper.
3. (23) Ian Kinsler - keeper.
4. (38) Francisco Rodríguez - keeper.
5. (43) Mark Teixeira - keeper.
6. (58) Álex Rodríguez - keeper.
7. (63) Justin Upton
8. (78) Shin-Soo Choo
9. (83) Adam Dunn
10. (98) Denard Span
11. (103) Joakim Soria
12. (118) Miguel Montero
13. (123) Stephen Strasburg
14. (138) Marco Scutaro
15. (143) Carlos Zambrano
16. (158) Scott Kazmir
17. (163) Ted Lilly
18. (178) Hideki Matsui
19. (183) Homer Bailey
20. (198) Jonathan Sánchez

C’mon Man… KRod!!?? Ugh…. I expect better from you. You already had Josh Johnson on your team. You could have kept him and had the best 1-2-3 punch in the pool and got KRod in the 3rd or 4th round easily. Anyways, your first four picks were pretty solid. The SS Choo should sail his way into a .300/25/100/20 season. I like that Asian Sonnavabitch. Soria?? Look at the talent you passed on to get another goddamn closer. I also hope you aren’t looking at a repeat of 2009 from Scutaro. The guy you should have drafted was taken by SeenBaseball four picks later. A LOT of question marks on your #3-7 starters but with a Halladay/Lee anchor you can afford to gamble. If two of those guys perform as you hope they do then you might have the best staff in the pool. I had my eye on Montero but you nabbed before I could. He could be a top catcher this year. GRADE: C

The Commie-Nazis
1. (4) CC Sabathia - keeper.
2. (17) Dan Haren - keeper.
3. (24) Félix Hernández - keeper.
4. (37) Johan Santana - keeper.
5. (44) Jonathan Papelbon - keeper.
6. (57) Mariano Rivera - keeper.
7. (64) Adrián González
8. (77) Jason Bay
9. (84) Chone Figgins
10. (97) Jason Kubel
11. (104) Bobby Abreu
12. (117) Jason Bartlett
13. (124) Dan Uggla
14. (137) Torii Hunter
15. (144) A.J. Burnett
16. (157) Ryan Franklin
17. (164) Mike Napoli
18. (177) Daisuke Matsuzaka
19. (184) Howie Kendrick
20. (197) Garrett Jones

Interesting strategy with your keepers. I’d rip you for keeping two closers but at least they (Rivera/Papelbon) are the closest thing to a guarantee there is for that position. And if I remember correctly your offense was puke inducing last year, nary a keeper to be found. Unfortunately you didn’t really address that with your draft. You started well with AGone (even better without K’s as a stat this year) but you really fell off the rails after that. Aside from him and Kubel (one year wonder risk) you really don’t have any reliable power. You should be fine with steals with Figgins, Bartlett, and Abreu but your team is very pedestrian with no upside. If any of your pitchers get injured you’re fucked. You might be served well flipping one (or two) of your aces for some top flight offense. How about Cabrera for Hernandez? Give it some thought. GRADE: F

THE ONE and Onlys
1. (5) Brandon Phillips - keeper.
2. (16) Ryan Braun - keeper.
3. (25) Chad Billingsley - keeper.
4. (36) Justin Verlander - keeper.
5. (45) Jered Weaver - keeper.
6. (56) Ryan Zimmerman - keeper.
7. (65) Derek Jeter
8. (76) Kendry Morales
9. (85) Wandy Rodríguez
10. (96) Adam Jones
11. (105) Francisco Cordero
12. (116) Geovany Soto
13. (125) Huston Street
14. (136) Michael Cuddyer
15. (145) Billy Wagner
16. (156) Raúl Ibañez
17. (165) Ian Stewart
18. (176) Jeff Niemann
19. (185) Drew Stubbs
20. (196) Tim Hudson

If the vote was for boring team name you’d win in a motherfucking landslide. But I digress… I’m honestly not a huge fan of your keepers. I think you could have kept Jeter and dropped Weaver and still gotten him 4-5 rounds in to the draft, while addressing other needs. Nice work replacing Morneau with Morales though. I had him last year and he was dynamite. After Cabrera and Votto though he was the odd man out (that’s how jacked my team was last year). Great speculative pick with Soto and it’s a bit shocking how far Adam Jones fell. Great value pick. But take a look at the talent you passed on when you drafted 3 closers waaaayyyyyy too early. Its gross. I love your 17th, 18th and 19th round picks. I sat on Neimann and Stubbs too long. Great bookend to your draft. GRADE: B-

No Glove No Love
1. (6) Matt Wieters - keeper.
2. (15) Ryan Howard - keeper.
3. (26) Aaron Hill - keeper.
4. (35) Adam Lind - keeper.
5. (46) Jacoby Ellsbury - keeper.
6. (55) Tommy Hanson - keeper.
7. (66) Kevin Youkilis
8. (75) Jimmy Rollins
9. (86) Heath Bell
10. (95) Derrek Lee
11. (106) Michael Bourn
12. (115) Jair Jurrjens
13. (126) Jay Bruce
14. (135) Edwin Jackson
15. (146) James Shields
16. (155) Neftali Feliz
17. (166) Ervin Santana
18. (175) Rich Harden
19. (186) Rickie Weeks
20. (195) Ricky Romero

Like SeenBaseball, a great group of keepers has set you up well this season. Personally, I would have kept Cain and dropped Lind (Morales, Morneau and Dunn were all available) but I didn’t hurt you – just preference. Are you banking on Bell being a top 3 closer this year? Do you know something the rest of us don’t? You drafted a middle of the road closer before a number #2 (or #3 or #4) pitcher! You did draft a lot of upside type pitchers later but that’s a big gamble just to take an average closer to fill a roster spot. However, you may never lose the runs and sb categories with Ellsbury and Bourn on your team. I like the Shields and Feliz picks as well. I had Neftali last year and his peripherals are off the charts. A lot of upside with this team, could be a contender this year. GRADE: B-

Desiccated Dingoes
1. (7) Joe Mauer - keeper.
2. (14) Albert Pujols - keeper.
3. (27) Zack Greinke - keeper.
4. (34) Johnny Damon - keeper.
5. (47) Vladimir Guerrero - keeper.
6. (54) Jonathan Broxton - keeper.
7. (67) Javier Vázquez
8. (74) Joe Nathan
9. (87) Brian Roberts
10. (94) Andrew McCutchen
11. (107) Nelson Cruz
12. (114) Michael Young
13. (127) Scott Baker
14. (134) Ryan Dempster
15. (147) Gavin Floyd
16. (154) Alexei Ramírez
17. (167) Lance Berkman
18. (174) Nate McLouth
19. (187) Ryan Ludwick
20. (194) David Ortiz

Tough to grade an auto draft so Ill just comment on your keepers and the potential of your team overall. After Mauer, Pujols and Greinke your other three keepers are hideous. A fucking closer, a past his prime slugger on wonky legs and a way past his prime outfielder who I think is a 1B/DH this year. You had Vazquez and BJ Upton didn’t you? Should have kept them instead of Guererro and Damon. The auto draft actually selected you a decent team overall though (Joe Nathan notwithstanding). In fact, it ended up being a better draft than a few guys who actually showed up last week. Vazquez (lucky), Cruz, McCutcheon, Baker and Ramierez should all be major cogs on your team. You are in better shape than you should be for a draftee no show. GRADE: N/A

Payne-Trayne
1. (8) Tim Lincecum - keeper.
2. (13) Chris Carpenter - keeper.
3. (28) Jon Lester - keeper.
4. (33) Ben Zobrist - keeper.
5. (48) Víctor Martínez - keeper.
6. (53) José Reyes - keeper.
7. (68) Mark Reynolds
8. (73) Jayson Werth
9. (88) Curtis Granderson
10. (93) Aramis Ramírez
11. (108) Ubaldo Jiménez
12. (113) Josh Hamilton
13. (128) Alfonso Soriano
14. (133) John Danks
15. (148) Rick Porcello
16. (153) Mark Buehrle
17. (168) Stephen Drew
18. (173) Chris Coghlan
19. (188) Phil Hughes
20. (193) Francisco Liriano

Great, great keepers. Your first 5 draft picks were also top shelf, really rounded out your team well. Hammer is a good risk-reward pick and if he can stay healthy he might have a monster season in that Texas lineup. Aside from Porcello and Hughes, your last 8 picks were very boring. You’d have been better served drafting some high upside guys like Heyward, Stubbs, Strasberg, Matusz etc. But overall a rock solid draft. GRADE: B+

HGH Allstars
1. (9) Chase Utley - keeper.
2. (12) David Wright - keeper.
3. (29) Matt Holliday - keeper.
4. (32) Matt Kemp - keeper.
5. (49) Clayton Kershaw - keeper.
6. (52) Troy Tulowitzki - keeper.
7. (69) Cole Hamels
8. (72) B.J. Upton
9. (89) Ricky Nolasco
10. (92) Manny Ramírez
11. (109) Carlos Peña
12. (112) José Valverde
13. (129) Billy Butler
14. (132) Carlos Mármol
15. (149) Roy Oswalt
16. (152) Carlos Beltrán
17. (169) Kurt Suzuki
18. (172) Johnny Cueto
19. (189) Travis Snider
20. (192) Cameron Maybin

Another great group of keepers, perhaps the best 1-6 in the pool. 2nd, 3rd and SS are filled with studs, 2 top flight OF’s (Kemp could be even better this year!) and Kershaw is on the verge of something special. However, aside from your last three picks (and Nolasco) your entire draft was very uninspired. I understand that you were secure at every position of scarcity outside of catcher (Kurt Suzuki? Bleh) but you passed on a lot guys who have massive upside for name players with suspect credentials. If your top 7 or 8 weren’t so incredible you’d be in for a long season. Based on your non-keeper draft I’d grade you a D but overall…. GRADE: B-

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