Thursday, April 1, 2010

My Draft

As the defending champion its only fair to go in to greater detail with my draft analysis.

Team: Who Dat Ninja?

Keepers:

Cabrera: top 3-4 1B.

Sandoval: He’d be a fucking dynamo if he still had C eligibility. I’ll settle for a top 5 3B. And with the weight loss he’s due to improve his BA, OBP and Runs. Tasty.

Gallardo: 9.2K/9 and just entering his prime. This kid is a stud.

Victorino: I agonized over this one. I’m still on the fence actually and might regret not keeping Hamels but CH’s injury history scared me and I liked the across the board quality I get from the Flyin Hawaiian. Sets the table for the type of team I’m trying to build.

Votto: Pujols-lite. This kid is on his way to Super Stardom. .325/.415/40/120/100/20 is a definite possibility and a ridiculous luxury at UTIL.

Beckham: Tough to predict his potential but now that he has 2B eligibility (well, he will by May) his value is much higher. Allowed me to ditch Roberts who’s due for a significant decline in stats and/or a lengthy DL stint any day now. I just had to handicap this pick with another two bagger with potential – both to man the spot for the first month and to provide insurance in case becks stumbles in his sophomore year (I succeeded, more on him later).

Non-Keepers (in order):

70. Ichiro – with no outfielders I needed to add a foundation and IS was the guy. BA, OBP, Runs, SB. With Cabs, Votto and Sandy I have enough power for now
71. Beckett – lots of K’s and should be 17+ wins on that team. But I’m not sold on this pick. If he stays healthy though he should be fine.
90. Elvis Andrus – if he can up his average by .010 I could be sitting on a .278/.350/10/60 SS with 100 runs and 40+ SB’s. I love this pick…. But I have insurance.
91. Asdrubal Cabrera – This guy is my super sub. A bit high based on my teams needs but if either Elvis or Becks falter this guy is there (Eligible at both SS/2B). He has developing power but his high average and SB ability are amazing. I love this pick as well
110. Matt Garza – how this guy went 8-12 with his numbers is very odd. His WHIP, K/9 and low walk rate should translate into Ace/top of the order performance. I expect that to happen this season
111. Julio Borbon – The potential is there for a Carl Crawford type season. Or he could be on the waiver wire by June. I’ll take a .300/15/75/45 season though. And if he can at least keep his average above .285, leading off in the Texas offense, he should easily surpass those predictions.
130. Russell Martin – I needed a catcher and after him there really wasn’t much. If he can bounce back to his 2007 or even 2008 form then I’ll be very pleased. Otherwise I could be mining the waiver wire by mid season… or earlier.
131. Carlos Gonzales – This was a gift, plain and simple. To have a guy who will more than like finish in the top 20 for fantasy OF fall this far is awesome… for me. Late round power/speed/average players win titles.
150. J.A. Happ – Were his numbers last year a mirage? Probably, but not by that much. While I’m not expecting a sub 3.00 ERA this season, if Happ can maintain a 3.50/1.30 line while staying with his 7.5 K/9 rate then he’s a lock for 15+ wins on a stacked Philly team. Otherwise he’s a drop as there’s always great options on waivers by mid-season.
151. Max Scherzer – I’ve convinced myself that this kid will strike out 200+ this year and the AL Central is not a scary division hitter wise. I’m in love with this pick. Perhaps too much.
170. David Aardsma – He’s a closer. Seattle should be improved, hence more saves.
171. Frank Francisco – He’s a closer. High K’s and microscopic WHIP.
190. Chad Qualls – He’s a closer. High K’s and very low peripherals.
191. Leo Nunez – He’s a closer. I dropped him for Matt LaPorta. Jeremy picked him up.

No grade as that would be a bit disingenuous to rate myself. But I like my draft. It wasn’t perfect by any stretch as I waited too long on certain guys like Heyward, Stubbs, Miguel Montero, Neimann etc but perhaps I underestimated the savvy of some of you guys.

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