Wednesday, April 21, 2010

Moch Draft 2.0

With the 2010 Draft just a day away, its time to revise my mock in light of a few recent moves. Jason Taylor is a Jet (i puked when I heard about this. Then my dog ate it), Tony the Scheff is a Lion and ErnieBert Sims is an Eagle. LET THE REVISING BEGIN!!

Come with me if you want to live…

1. St. Louis: Sam Bradford QB – Even though he hasn't been signed yet, this is still the closest thing to a guarantee.

2. Detroit: Ndamakong Suh DT – Status quo.

3. Tampa Bay: Gerald McCoy DT – Dido.

4. Washington: Trent Williams OT – Switched it up a bit. Shannahan is implementing his patented zone blocking scheme and Williams is more athletic at LT than Okung. I don't buy into his character issues either. previous pick: Okung

5. Kansas City: Russell Okung OT – Now Pioli gets the guy he really wanted. Previous pick: Bulaga

6. Seattle: CJ Spiller RB – I waffled between Bulaga and Berry for a while. In the end I don't think Bulaga has the athleticism Pete Carroll is looking for and Berry would be nice but the 'Hawks needs are LT and RB. So, Spiller it is! Previous pick: Williams

7. Cleveland: Eric Berry FS – If Seattle takes Berry then Holmgren tries to trade out of this pick.

8. Oakland: Jason Pierre-Paul DE – Al Davis is still bat shit crazy and this is still the pick. Welcome to the nut house Jason, God speed.

9. Buffalo: Jimmy Clausen QB – This pick remains the same. Buffalo has arguably the worst QB's in the league and Clausen is the most pro-ready guy in this draft. Bulaga is on the board though....
MITTENS TRADE ALERT: The Bills might be tempted to trade down and the Giants, desperate for Rolando “Die Hard” McClain, might be willing partners. If Clausen is still on the board at 15 he’s the pick. If not… Tebow?

10. Jacksonville: Derek Morgan DE – This is still the pick here. I was thinking McClain but the Jax pass rush is hideous.

11. Denver: Ronaldo McClain ILB – I had Dez here previously but the more I think about it, I just can't see McDaniels wanting another diva on his team. McClain is a beast and a high character guy as well. Previous pick - Dez Bryant

12. Miami: Sean Wetherspoon LB – Now that Jason Taylor is a Jet (SERENITY NOW!!) and Spiller is off the board, Parcells focuses on defense. Most pundits have Kindle going here but he's a 4-3 DE who doesn't really have the size/speed combo a 3-4 OLB needs. Wetherspoon looks like Jason Taylor and he's a smart kid with a high motor. Earl Thomas is a possibility as well. Previous pick - CJ Spiller
MITTENS TRADE ALERT: Weatherspoon could be had 5-12 picks later and Parcells wants the second round pick back that he lost in the Fire Marshall trade.

13. San Francisco: Joe Haden CB – With Bulaga still on the board I gave the kid some thought as a RT (where he's better suited anyways). But Haden is far too good to fall any further.

14. Seattle: Anthony Davis LT – Now that Pete has a shiny new toy to play with in Spiller, its time to get someone to clear some space for the kid. Previous pick - Sergio Kindle

15. New York Giants: Earl Thomas S – The next best ILB prospect is arguably Sean Lee but he's a second round guy. Thomas can move to FS and make a great pairing with Kenny Phillips at SS. Previous pick - Rolando McClain

16. Tennessee: Sergio Kindle OLB/DE – And the fall for Kindle ends here. He played DE in a 4-3 at Texas and he'll be a great fit in this defense. Previous pick - Brandon Graham

17. San Francisco: Mike Iupati G/T – This pick remains the same.

18. Pittsburgh: Bryan Bulaga OT – Wow, from 5th to 18th! But this a great pick for the Steelers as their O-Line is mediocre at best. Life just got easier for Mendenhall and ..... Roethlisberger? Clausen? Batch? Leftwych? Previous pick - Kyle Wilson

19. Atlanta: Dez Bryant WR – White, Bryant, Turner and Ryan... if they can find some defensive help later on they might make a serious run at the conference title. Previous pick - Williams

20. Houston: Kyle Wilson CB – The Duke is off the board so Wilson gets the call to replace the underwhelming and overpaid Dunta Robinson. Previous Pick - Earl Thomas

21. Cincinnati: Brandon Graham DE – Same position, better player. The Bengals will get a TE later if that's what they want. Previous pick - Chris Dunlap

22. New England: Jermaine Gresham TE – Status quo.. however, Jared Odrick is a possibility.
MITTENS TRADE ALERT: If Gresham is gone (and no edge rushers are enticing enough) NE could very well trade out of this spot. Green Bay will almost certainly draft a LT or C/G and Dallas may want to trade up to the spot just in front to get their pick and thus leave Green Bay with the leftovers.

23. Green Bay: Maurkice Pouncey G/C – Same pick as before.

24. Philadelphia: Devin McCourty CB – Unchanged from before. Will Dan Williams ever be drafted?

25. Baltimore: Dan Williams DT – TADOW!! Question, with this monster lined up beside Ngata, how do you run on them? How many QB's do they concuss? Previous pick - Odrick

26. Arizona: Brandon Spikes LB – He's really only falling due to his pedestrian 40 time (his shuttle time was pretty good though - a better measuring stick for a ILB anyways). Warm weather guy, high motor, perfect replacement for Dansby - they hope. Previous Pick - Weatherspoon

27. Dallas: Bruce Campbell LT – NFL.com's most recent mock has Charles Brown as the guy but I think the upside is considerable with this kid. I'm holding firm on this pick.

28. San Diego: Ryan Matthews RB – This might actually be the second closest thing to a guarantee after Bradford to the Rams. Song Remains the Same at pick 28.

29. New York Jets: Jared Odrick DE – I was staying with Griffen until I realized that Odrick was still on the board. What a steal for Rex Ryan and now this defense is scary good. Previous pick - Griffen

30. Minnesota: Patrick Robinson CB – Nothing changes here.

31. Indianapolis: Kareem Jackson CB – You should really check out the mock draft on NFL.com that came out today. I think Marshall Faulk was drunk.

32. New Orleans: Everson Griffen DE – I still think Nate Allen is a possibility here but it will be very tough for the Saints to pass on a talent like Griffen sliding down to 32. Previous pick - Nate Allen

Notable 1st Round Absentees (and dropouts):

Nate Allen S - The only dropout from my previous draft. He's a lock to go in the second round. Miami might make a move to trade up for him.

Taylor Mays S - poor footwork, might end up a linebacker anyways.

Terrance Cody and Tyson Alualu DT - two teams in the first 10 picks of the second round just hit the goddamn jackpot.

Charles Brown OT - no way he gets past the Rams or Lions.

Demaryius Thomas WR - He needs coaching which is why he slides but he has huge potential. Tampa Bay takes a hard look.

Golden Tate WR - just a victim of the needs/numbers game. He won't get past Seattle.

Colt McCoy QB - if Tate and Thomas are gone, Seattle gives this guy serious consideration. As does Cleveland and San Fransisco.

Tim Tebow QB - If Buffalo passes on Clausen at 9 then they do everything they can to get this kid. Jim Kelly said he likes him so the Bills fans, ever so Pavlovian, now love Tebow too. He could bring His message to Western New York.

Sunday, April 18, 2010

The one thing the Raptors MUST do this Summer

And its not keeping Chris Bosh.

Trade for Darren Collison. New Orleans already has Chris Paul and a guy like Collison on the bench is an embarrassment of riches. I don't care what it takes, trade for this kid right now.

While he was starting in place of CP, who was injured, he averaged just shy of 10 apg and had a few monsters with 14,15,16,18 and 20 assist games. The knock on this kid is turnovers and lack of rebounding. The former can be coached and the lack I couldn't care less about so its not exactly a big deterrent to bringing him to Toronto. He will (and did) get abused by the bigger point guards in the league but the Raps can create a defense that compensates for that. As for his shooting, he fired away at a 47.7% clip, including 40% from 3 point range. His starting numbers translate to roughly 16.5 ppg, 9.5 apg, 1.5 spg and 3.5 rpg. Oh yea, he's only 22 years old and still has 3 years left on a low cost rookie contract.

In a perfect world we could sign and trade Bosh to New Orleans for Collison and Okeafor (we'd have to include another player and/or pick i'm sure). Okeafor could then play Centre and Bargnani could slide over to PF where he's more effective anyways. We then have a great rebounding/shot blocking C who can chip in 10-13 ppg and a wizard assist man on point. We would also trade Calderone and keep Jack. We'd need to eat part of Jose's contract or take one back but fuck it.

Why would the Hornets do this deal? Think about a front court with Chris Bosh AND David West. Sure, neither are a true centre but it doesn't matter, no one aside from Dwight Howard will be able to guard them and they are both top end rebounders and efficient shot blockers. Also, they are both 20/10 guys and Chris Paul should love pounding the ball inside to these two. Speaking of whom, this is CP's team and Bosh wouldn't need to be the leader or face of the franchise - neither of which I think he was truly comfortable with. Now with the emerging Marcus Thornton, its a pick your poison type scenario every time another team plays New Orleans.

As for the Raptors, this trade would make us younger, tougher and more cap flexible.

Here's my fantasy lineup for 2010/2011:

PG: Collison
SG: Weems
SF: Turkoglu (trade possibility)
PF: Bargnani
C: Okeafor

Bench

PG: Jack
SG: Belinelli
G/F: DeRozan (6th man), Antoine Wright (if he resigns)
F: Johnson, Evans
C: Nesterovich

With a pick somewhere between 9 and 14 in this years draft we should be able to find a useful player. A lot depends on what players are moved this summer but I think top priority is getting an athletic, great defending, lights out shooter to play the 2 spot. Think MoPete but better on D.

Colangelo, make it happen.

Saturday, April 17, 2010

Pre-Draft Trade Scenarios

There's already been some huge trades this year as we begin to feel the effects of Restricted Free Agency. Anquan Bolden, Santonio Holmes, Brandan Marshall and Donovan McNabb have all been sent packing in blockbuster deals and guys like Charlie Whitehurst and Ted Ginn Jr have been given new addresses in more minor deals. However, there are still some significant names out there who could be dealt by draft day.

Jason Campbell QB - This is just a matter of when as there is simply no room for him on the Redskin's roster now that they traded for McNabb. If Buffalo passes on Clausen (the most pro-ready QB in the draft) then this has to be the most logical landing spot for JC. Even if the Bills get a guy like McCoy or Tebow, they will need a season or two to learn the pro game and Chan Gailey knows how to coach QB's. Campbell can hold down the position until the team decides its time to turn the reigns over to whichever QB they draft this year. This also gives Campbell a chance to prove his worth and if he plays well enough he could earn himself another contract elsewhere. Oakland is another possibility as well.

Marshawn Lynch RB - Buddy Nix has stated that he's not trading him but I think that's just a smoke screen. He's clearly worn out his welcome in Western NY and Freddy Jackson has proven to be an effective alternative. I hear Detroit is interested but I can't see it happening. Jim Schwartz is building a young team and adding a headcase like Lynch could really disrupt that process. I think a more likely destination(s) would be either Houston or San Diego. These are both well established, successful teams who can contend for a title right now and might see a guy like Lynch, with his talent, as the missing piece. They also have the veterans in place to keep this guy in line, unlike Detroit. If one of these teams is willing to pony up a 3rd rounder Buffalo should jump on it. The Giants are a possibility as well.

Jared Gaither LT - With Michael Oher expected to slide over to the LT spot, Jared Gaither has become expendable. But that's not an indictment of his talent, which is immense, but rather its his work ethic that's highly questionable. He signed a first round tender and Baltimore is asking for a 2nd rounder in return (they won't get it) but I think a 3rd or even two 4th's would do the trick. I think an ideal destination would be Green Bay, who needs talent all across their O-Line. Deciding which tackle spot Gaither and Clifton will play is a problem a lot of teams would love to have. Add a guy like Maurkice Pouncey (a 1st round possibility for the Packers) and they could immediately transform a mediocre line into one of the better lines in the NFC. Other possibilities are Buffalo and Oakland (if they forgo a lineman in the first round) and San Diego.

last but not least....

Ben Roethlisberger QB - I rarely pass judgment on the extra curricular activities of professional athletes, but Big Ben is an idiot. Three times now he's jeopardized his career - and for what, looking cool on your motorcycle and hitting some college ass? The Rooney's are arguably the best owners in professional sports and after quarterbacking the Steelers to two Super Bowls he very well could have been put in the elder Rooney's will. Now he's looking at a suspension and he's lost the faith of not just his team, but an entire city. He's got a massive hole to dig himself out of and I wouldn't be surprised if Pittsburgh cut their losses with this guy and shipped his dumb ass out of town. If Buffalo has decided that a QB is how they'll spend their first round pick, perhaps they should spend it in Pittsburgh.

Scouting the Linebackers

Here's a great link that breaks down the different types of linebackers and the prospects in next weeks draft who fit each one.

http://www.nfl.com/draft/story?id=09000d5d817760d0&template=with-video-with-comments&confirm=true

Sergio Kindle is a name that pops up quite a bit when discussing players that Miami might draft at #12. If Jason Taylor resigns and we're confident in Cameron Wake's ability then I'd prefer we look at a developmental prospect like Koa Misi. However, Kindle would look great in orange and teal if we do in fact draft him. He made a living behind the line of scrimmage and has the motor/tenacity that Parcells loves in his linebackers.

I still say we go Safety, Defensive Tackle or look to hit a home run with Spiller.

Thursday, April 15, 2010

NFL Mock Draft

I’m throwing my hat in the Mock Draft ring for the first time… in print. So for the sake of keeping things spicy I’m changing the format, just a smidge, from the usual mocks we’re all used to seeing from nfl.com, bleacherreport.com, espn.com etc. Along with the typical roll call of picks I’m adding a TRADE ALERT. These are the picks that I suspect have a good chance to be traded and here’s where I need help from Mittens. He’ll prognosticate like a sonovabitch and let me know who’s moving in to these slots and who the pick could be.

Come with me if you want to live…

1. St. Louis: QB Sam Bradford – After Bradford’s electric pro day and Bulger’s release this pick is now a forgone conclusion. Sammy the Bull will be Steve “The Don” Spagnuolo’s Consigliore for the next decade.

2. Detroit: DT Ndamakong Suh – I was looking at Okung with this pick for a while (still a possibility) but now that the Lions traded for Sims I think they’ll sit on OT’s until the later rounds and draft a developmental guy there. This team needs everything and Suh can team up with VandenBosch to form a very formidable front.

3. Tampa Bay: DT Gerald McCoy – This guy reminds a lot of experts of Warren Sapp but without the off field distractions. That alone ensures McCoy will be a Buc on April 22nd. Gerald will be a perennial Pro Bowl tackle for Tampa Bay.

4. Washington: Russell Okung – The trade for McNabb has a massive impact on the top ten and the ripples could be felt as deep as the second day. Many pundits had Clausen in this spot but no more. With the retirement of Chris Samuels, Shannahan and Co. provide their new star with a LT to watch his blindside until he retires.

5. Kansas City: OT Brian Bulaga – Scott Pioli knows that great teams are built inside out and Bulaga could team with Branden Albert at RT to form a dominating offensive line on the ends. If only they could score TD’s….

6. Seattle: Trent Williams OT – The last of the top tackles goes to a team in desperate need of one. Berry and Spiller get serious consideration here and I wouldn’t be surprised to see either one selected but like I said before, good teams are built from the inside out.

7. Cleveland: Eric Berry FS – Holmgren can add this future stud to a now vastly improved secondary that just traded for Sheldon Brown to play corner. Berry is a big time playmaker which is exactly what this defense needs.

8. Oakland: Jason Pierre-Paul DE – Al Davis is bat shit crazy and he proves it again with the drafts first shocker (but is it really?). JPP has all the potential in the world but for a team with so many glaring needs, offensive tackle being the biggest, this could be a disastrous pick. So of course it has to happen. Welcome to the nut house Jason, God speed.

9. Buffalo: Jimmy Clausen QB – With apologies to Brian, the self-proclaimed Buffalo Bills #1 Fan who has an unhealthy man crush on Tim Tebow, The Bills take their future franchise QB here. I was tempted to go OT here but it’s a bit of a reach to select either of the next two LT prospects (Davis and Campbell) this early.
TRADE ALERT: Uh oh, Mittens is at it again! Catstrodamus thinks the Bills might be tempted to trade down and that the Giants, desperate for Rolando “Die Hard” McClain, might be willing partners. If Clausen is still on the board at 15 he’s the pick. If not… Tebow?

10. Jacksonville: Derek Morgan DE – This is the appropriate pick for first DE off the board (apologies to Al…. and Mike Mayock for that matter). With Aaron Kampman paired with Morgan, The Jags might finally have the pass rush they’ve been lusting for. I was tempted to go with Dez Bryant but this team needs help on defense in the worst way. Jax will address receiver later.

11. Denver: Dez Bryant WR – This makes even more sense now that Forgetting Brandon Marshall is a Dolphin. I think his “issues” are a bit over blown and this kid will reach his potential in a year or two. Who’s throwing him the ball by 2011 is anyone’s guess though. Hint… it won’t be the asstastic Kyle Orton.

12. Miami: CJ Spiller RB – As a huge Dolphins fan I had Earl Thomas in this slot until yesterday morning. Doesn’t make sense? Hear me out. Earl Thomas at 12 and one of the remaining DT’s at 42 (I was hoping for Cody). Now without a second rounder what do we do? Simple: replace the soon to be traded Ronnie Brown with the draft’s most dynamic runner (half his collegiate TD’s were over 40 yards) and instantly create one of the NFL’s most potent offenses. Then use the remaining picks on defensive players.
TRADE ALERT: There are several teams who desperately want to get in to the top half of the draft (NE, Philly, Dallas etc) and we might be able to wrangle a second round pick in exchange for the swap, however, Spiller will not get past Seattle)

13. San Francisco: Joe Haden CB – not too long ago this kid had a top ten grade in most drafts but various trades, signings and other prospects getting red hot (Morgan, Williams) allow him to fall… right into a giddy Mike Singletary’s lap. Sometimes good things happen to good people.

14. Seattle: Sergio Kindle OLB – with Spiller gone the ‘hawks look to address their anemic pass rush here. Kindle and Williams aren’t the type of sexy picks that sell Season Tickets but at the end of the day its wins that are the true measuring stick (and what will give the new coaching staff some job security).

15. New York Giants: Rolando McClain ILB – The Football Gods have spoken, and in the Giant War room, the word is good. Word around the bolgosphere has the Giants wanting to trade up to snag this guy but with the Fire Marshall trade the needs of the other teams ahead of them has shifted. Goodbye Antonio Pierce, hello Rolando McClain. Yippee Kiyay Mother……

16. Tennessee: Brandon Graham OLB/DE – He doesn’t have the hype that surrounds Derek Morgan and JPP but this kids just makes plays. In fact, in College he made a living behind the line of scrimmage. Jeff Fisher will love this guy.

17. San Francisco: Mike Iupati G/T – If Mike Singletary were an Offensive Lineman instead of a Linebacker he might have a game like this mauler. That alone makes him the pick dujour at 17. Somewhere, Frank Gore is smiling.

18. Pittsburgh: Kyle Wilson CB – with both Bruce Campbell and Anthony Davis still on the board the Steelers might be tempted to go in that direction. However, this team is identified with by their strong defense and now that the Ravens and (to a lesser extent) the Bengals have enhanced their passing attack, Wilson is a no brainer.

19. Atlanta: Dan Williams DT – Ideally they’d have liked a pass rusher here but none fell this far so they shore up another area of need. Plug Williams beside Babineaux and the Falcons potentially have the makings of a great front in their 4-3 defense.

20. Houston: Earl Thomas S – Sure, Running Back is a big area of need but there will be plenty of quality backs in the next 2-3 rounds. And its not like this team has trouble scoring points as it is. Earl Thomas is a Dolphin if Spiller is off the board (in my mock vision) so this is massive value at another area of need. The Duke has a few Pro Bowls in his future.

21. Cincinnati: Chris Dunlap DE – Many pundits have TE Jermaine Gresham going here (and it could still happen) but I think defense is a bigger need. Dunlap is massive at 6-6 280 and will immediate help their run defense but he’ll need coaching to become a pro worthy sack artist. Guys like Gronkowski and Pitta will still be available in the second if the Bengals are set on drafting a TE still.

22. New England: Jermaine Gresham TE – with the emerging Julian Edelman and this stud, the NE offense may not even skip a beat while Welker is rehabbing. And when he gets back….. sweet baby Jesus… The AFC East will be an exciting division – in spite of the Bills barf enducing potential.
TRADE ALERT: If Gresham is gone (and no edge rushers are enticing enough) NE could very well trade out of this spot. Green Bay will almost certainly draft a LT or C/G and Dallas may want to trade up to the spot just in front to get their pick and thus leave Green Bay with the leftovers.

23. Green Bay: Maurkice Pouncey G/C – This is a no-brainer. Aaron Rodgers is the franchise and he got hammered on a nightly basis last year. That is simply unacceptable so the Packers draft a guy who could anchor the middle of their line for 7-10 years. The only one who hates this pick is Rodgers’ Chiropractor.

24. Philadelphia: Devin McCourty CB – By trading Sheldon Brown and losing Dawkins last year the Eagles have big holes in the secondary. The scouting report on McCourty is that he was a great cover guy in College and should be able to translate to the pros quickly. Kolb will have a lot of pressure on his shoulders but if he’s forced to come from behind every game the pressure could be too much. Eagles fans are ruthless. A good pass defense will help.

25. Baltimore: Jared Odrick DT – Versatile enough that he can play in a 3-4 or a 4-3, Odrick will slide right in beside Haloti Ngata and form a front that has the potential to be dominating. Terrance Cody is a possibility here as well or perhaps an edge rusher like Everson Griffin.

26. Arizona: Sean Weatherspoon LB – The problem (but not really) with this kid is scouts can’t come to a consensus on where he plays. Is he a Will type back in a 3-4 or is he a Sam type in a 4-3? Either way, this kid’s athleticism is off the charts and the Cardinals will find a way to use him.

27. Dallas: Bruce Campbell LT – Is Doug Free really the guy to replace Flozell Adams? Campbell is a bit of a project but he’s a freakish athlete. Dallas may sit him for a year or throw him out at RT and see what happens. Either way, Jerry Jones loves high upside, athletic players and OL is an area of need. A Safety is also a possibility here.

28. San Diego: Ryan Matthews RB – I agonized over this pick as DT is a huge area of need as well. However, I think AJ Smith banks on the depth of DT’s in this draft and snags one in the next round. Matthews put up massive numbers at Fresno State and has the tools to be an every down back in the pro’s.

29. New York Jets: Everson Griffen DE – At long last, the Vernon Gholston era has come to a merciful end. If this kid can play then the Jets may have the best defense in football (if they don’t already). A quality pass rusher is really all that’s missing.

30. Minnesota: Patrick Robinson CB – I so wanted to go with Colt McCoy here but it looks like Favre is coming back and the duo of Jackson/Rosenfels are decent caretakers if the Vikings decide to take a developmental QB like Skelton or Kafka later in the draft. However, injuries and free agency have done a number on the team’s secondary and Robinson has the skills and smarts necessary to handle the complex packages Minnesota runs.

31. Indianapolis: Kareem Jackson CB – 5 corners in the first round… but wasn’t this supposed to be the year of the DT? True, but Indy is desperate for help in the secondary for the same reason as Minnesota. And many scouts/pundits have Jackson rated higher than both McCourty and Robinson so this is good value here.
TRADE ALERT: NE, Buffalo or even Jacksonville could trade up for this pick to select Tim Tebow (assuming the Bills pass on Clausen of course). The extra picks would allow the Colts to fill a lot of positions like C (John Asamoah?), DT (Terrance Cody or Tyson Alualu?) or perhaps even get Kareem on a back slide.

32. New Orleans: Nate Allen S – This is a pick on the assumption that Darren Sharper is not resigned. He was such a huge part of the defense and if he leaves they have no one to replace him. Enter Nate Allen. However, even if Sharper returns he’ll be 36 years old. Jerry Hughes, the OLB from TCU is a definite possibility here as well.

Notable 1st Round Absentees:

Taylor Mays S - poor footwork, might end up a linebacker anyways.
Terrance Cody and Tyson Alualu DT - two teams in the first 10 picks of the second round just hit the goddamn jackpot.
Charles Brown OT - no way he gets past the Rams or Lions.
Demaryius Thomas WR - He needs coaching which is why he slides but he has huge potential. Tampa Bay takes a hard look.
Golden Tate WR - just a victim of the needs/numbers game. He won't get past Seattle.
Colt McCoy QB - if Tate and Thomas are gone, Seattle gives this guy serious consideration. As does Cleveland and San Fransisco.
Tim Tebow QB - If Buffalo passes on Clausen at 9 then they do everything they can to get this kid. Jim Kelly said he likes him so the Bills fans, ever so Pavlovian, now love Tebow too. He could bring His message to Upstate New York.

Thursday, April 1, 2010

My Draft

As the defending champion its only fair to go in to greater detail with my draft analysis.

Team: Who Dat Ninja?

Keepers:

Cabrera: top 3-4 1B.

Sandoval: He’d be a fucking dynamo if he still had C eligibility. I’ll settle for a top 5 3B. And with the weight loss he’s due to improve his BA, OBP and Runs. Tasty.

Gallardo: 9.2K/9 and just entering his prime. This kid is a stud.

Victorino: I agonized over this one. I’m still on the fence actually and might regret not keeping Hamels but CH’s injury history scared me and I liked the across the board quality I get from the Flyin Hawaiian. Sets the table for the type of team I’m trying to build.

Votto: Pujols-lite. This kid is on his way to Super Stardom. .325/.415/40/120/100/20 is a definite possibility and a ridiculous luxury at UTIL.

Beckham: Tough to predict his potential but now that he has 2B eligibility (well, he will by May) his value is much higher. Allowed me to ditch Roberts who’s due for a significant decline in stats and/or a lengthy DL stint any day now. I just had to handicap this pick with another two bagger with potential – both to man the spot for the first month and to provide insurance in case becks stumbles in his sophomore year (I succeeded, more on him later).

Non-Keepers (in order):

70. Ichiro – with no outfielders I needed to add a foundation and IS was the guy. BA, OBP, Runs, SB. With Cabs, Votto and Sandy I have enough power for now
71. Beckett – lots of K’s and should be 17+ wins on that team. But I’m not sold on this pick. If he stays healthy though he should be fine.
90. Elvis Andrus – if he can up his average by .010 I could be sitting on a .278/.350/10/60 SS with 100 runs and 40+ SB’s. I love this pick…. But I have insurance.
91. Asdrubal Cabrera – This guy is my super sub. A bit high based on my teams needs but if either Elvis or Becks falter this guy is there (Eligible at both SS/2B). He has developing power but his high average and SB ability are amazing. I love this pick as well
110. Matt Garza – how this guy went 8-12 with his numbers is very odd. His WHIP, K/9 and low walk rate should translate into Ace/top of the order performance. I expect that to happen this season
111. Julio Borbon – The potential is there for a Carl Crawford type season. Or he could be on the waiver wire by June. I’ll take a .300/15/75/45 season though. And if he can at least keep his average above .285, leading off in the Texas offense, he should easily surpass those predictions.
130. Russell Martin – I needed a catcher and after him there really wasn’t much. If he can bounce back to his 2007 or even 2008 form then I’ll be very pleased. Otherwise I could be mining the waiver wire by mid season… or earlier.
131. Carlos Gonzales – This was a gift, plain and simple. To have a guy who will more than like finish in the top 20 for fantasy OF fall this far is awesome… for me. Late round power/speed/average players win titles.
150. J.A. Happ – Were his numbers last year a mirage? Probably, but not by that much. While I’m not expecting a sub 3.00 ERA this season, if Happ can maintain a 3.50/1.30 line while staying with his 7.5 K/9 rate then he’s a lock for 15+ wins on a stacked Philly team. Otherwise he’s a drop as there’s always great options on waivers by mid-season.
151. Max Scherzer – I’ve convinced myself that this kid will strike out 200+ this year and the AL Central is not a scary division hitter wise. I’m in love with this pick. Perhaps too much.
170. David Aardsma – He’s a closer. Seattle should be improved, hence more saves.
171. Frank Francisco – He’s a closer. High K’s and microscopic WHIP.
190. Chad Qualls – He’s a closer. High K’s and very low peripherals.
191. Leo Nunez – He’s a closer. I dropped him for Matt LaPorta. Jeremy picked him up.

No grade as that would be a bit disingenuous to rate myself. But I like my draft. It wasn’t perfect by any stretch as I waited too long on certain guys like Heyward, Stubbs, Miguel Montero, Neimann etc but perhaps I underestimated the savvy of some of you guys.

Baseball Keeper League Draft and Analysis.

Let me begin with this – I hate closers. In my opinion they are the fantasy equivalent of a football kicker. Doubt me? Look at K-Rod: Before last year he had save totals of 45, 47, 40 and 62, all with sub 3.00 ERA’s and 1.300 WHIP’s. Last year? 3.71/1.31/35 which equaled the 25th ranked relief pitcher last year (according to Yahoo rankings) and 14th in saves. 5 of the guys who finished ahead of him were available post draft on the waiver wire and for the exception of maybe Rivera/Paplebon, all were drafted way later than K-Rod. So, if you drafted a closer before the 6th to last round (or worse, wasted a keeper spot on one) I will eviscerate you in my report card.

HaveUSeenMyBaseball
1. (1) Brian McCann - keeper.
2. (20) Prince Fielder - keeper.
3. (21) Andre Ethier - keeper.
4. (40) Brandon Webb - keeper.
5. (41) Adam Wainwright - keeper.
6. (60) Grady Sizemore - keeper.
7. (61) Carl Crawford
8. (80) Robinson Canó
9. (81) Matt Cain
10. (100) John Lackey
11. (101) Jorge Cantú
12. (120) Andrew Bailey
13. (121) Jason Heyward
14. (140) Brian Fuentes
15. (141) Yunel Escobar
16. (160) Carlos Quentin
17. (161) Clay Buchholz
18. (180) Aroldis Chapman
19. (181) José López
20. (200) Brett Wallace

Great keepers have set you up well for a good season and the Crawford/Cano/Cain/Lackey 4 some that kicked off your draft should keep you in contention. Too bad you blew the draft with your Bailey/Fuentes picks. Seriously man? I had Fuentes last year and desperately tried to trade him. Sure, he had 47 saves but his peripherals were shit. And Bailey? He’s with the A’s…. they suck… you passed on Baker, CarGo, Edwin Jackson, and Kevin Slowey for a guy who’s lucky to get 25 saves on that shithole team. However, getting Yunel Escobar in the 15th round was either genius or luck. .300/20/85 with 10+ steals, 90+ runs and an OBP around .380. I almost took him over Andrus in the 9th round. GRADE: B-

Mom-ram
1. (2) Hanley Ramírez - keeper.
2. (19) Evan Longoria - keeper.
3. (22) Dustin Pedroia - keeper.
4. (39) Jake Peavy - keeper.
5. (42) David Price - keeper.
6. (59) Brian Wilson - keeper.
7. (62) Josh Johnson
8. (79) Justin Morneau
9. (82) Nick Markakis
10. (99) Hunter Pence
11. (102) Brett Anderson
12. (119) Carlos Lee
13. (122) Rafael Soriano
14. (139) Kevin Slowey
15. (142) Nyjer Morgan
16. (159) Ryan Doumit
17. (162) Shaun Marcum
18. (179) Brian Matusz
19. (182) Colby Rasmus
20. (199) Clayton Richard

I’m not sure what your other options were but your keeper trifuckta of Peavy, Price and …. fuck me…. Brian Kokomo Wilson does not give me confidence in your ability to get out of the basement this year. Peavy is now in the AL (and no longer in Petco Park) but really the issue is with Price and Wilson. You are kind of handcuffed with a guy like Price. Drop him and then see him dominate for someone else or keep him and have pitch mediocre for a whole season. Tough spot. And then there’s Wilson…. The Neil Rackers of Baseball. Moving on… Your first three picks were rock solid and I wouldn’t be surprised to see JJ become not only your best pitcher but a top 10-15 guy this year overall. I won’t even discuss Soriano. Slowey, Morgan and Marcum were great picks at their respective rounds. You really need all you sleepers (rasmus, matusz, marcum, price, slowey) to break out or you could be in for a long season. GRADE: D

Winfield Wants Noise
1. (3) Roy Halladay - keeper.
2. (18) Cliff Lee - keeper.
3. (23) Ian Kinsler - keeper.
4. (38) Francisco Rodríguez - keeper.
5. (43) Mark Teixeira - keeper.
6. (58) Álex Rodríguez - keeper.
7. (63) Justin Upton
8. (78) Shin-Soo Choo
9. (83) Adam Dunn
10. (98) Denard Span
11. (103) Joakim Soria
12. (118) Miguel Montero
13. (123) Stephen Strasburg
14. (138) Marco Scutaro
15. (143) Carlos Zambrano
16. (158) Scott Kazmir
17. (163) Ted Lilly
18. (178) Hideki Matsui
19. (183) Homer Bailey
20. (198) Jonathan Sánchez

C’mon Man… KRod!!?? Ugh…. I expect better from you. You already had Josh Johnson on your team. You could have kept him and had the best 1-2-3 punch in the pool and got KRod in the 3rd or 4th round easily. Anyways, your first four picks were pretty solid. The SS Choo should sail his way into a .300/25/100/20 season. I like that Asian Sonnavabitch. Soria?? Look at the talent you passed on to get another goddamn closer. I also hope you aren’t looking at a repeat of 2009 from Scutaro. The guy you should have drafted was taken by SeenBaseball four picks later. A LOT of question marks on your #3-7 starters but with a Halladay/Lee anchor you can afford to gamble. If two of those guys perform as you hope they do then you might have the best staff in the pool. I had my eye on Montero but you nabbed before I could. He could be a top catcher this year. GRADE: C

The Commie-Nazis
1. (4) CC Sabathia - keeper.
2. (17) Dan Haren - keeper.
3. (24) Félix Hernández - keeper.
4. (37) Johan Santana - keeper.
5. (44) Jonathan Papelbon - keeper.
6. (57) Mariano Rivera - keeper.
7. (64) Adrián González
8. (77) Jason Bay
9. (84) Chone Figgins
10. (97) Jason Kubel
11. (104) Bobby Abreu
12. (117) Jason Bartlett
13. (124) Dan Uggla
14. (137) Torii Hunter
15. (144) A.J. Burnett
16. (157) Ryan Franklin
17. (164) Mike Napoli
18. (177) Daisuke Matsuzaka
19. (184) Howie Kendrick
20. (197) Garrett Jones

Interesting strategy with your keepers. I’d rip you for keeping two closers but at least they (Rivera/Papelbon) are the closest thing to a guarantee there is for that position. And if I remember correctly your offense was puke inducing last year, nary a keeper to be found. Unfortunately you didn’t really address that with your draft. You started well with AGone (even better without K’s as a stat this year) but you really fell off the rails after that. Aside from him and Kubel (one year wonder risk) you really don’t have any reliable power. You should be fine with steals with Figgins, Bartlett, and Abreu but your team is very pedestrian with no upside. If any of your pitchers get injured you’re fucked. You might be served well flipping one (or two) of your aces for some top flight offense. How about Cabrera for Hernandez? Give it some thought. GRADE: F

THE ONE and Onlys
1. (5) Brandon Phillips - keeper.
2. (16) Ryan Braun - keeper.
3. (25) Chad Billingsley - keeper.
4. (36) Justin Verlander - keeper.
5. (45) Jered Weaver - keeper.
6. (56) Ryan Zimmerman - keeper.
7. (65) Derek Jeter
8. (76) Kendry Morales
9. (85) Wandy Rodríguez
10. (96) Adam Jones
11. (105) Francisco Cordero
12. (116) Geovany Soto
13. (125) Huston Street
14. (136) Michael Cuddyer
15. (145) Billy Wagner
16. (156) Raúl Ibañez
17. (165) Ian Stewart
18. (176) Jeff Niemann
19. (185) Drew Stubbs
20. (196) Tim Hudson

If the vote was for boring team name you’d win in a motherfucking landslide. But I digress… I’m honestly not a huge fan of your keepers. I think you could have kept Jeter and dropped Weaver and still gotten him 4-5 rounds in to the draft, while addressing other needs. Nice work replacing Morneau with Morales though. I had him last year and he was dynamite. After Cabrera and Votto though he was the odd man out (that’s how jacked my team was last year). Great speculative pick with Soto and it’s a bit shocking how far Adam Jones fell. Great value pick. But take a look at the talent you passed on when you drafted 3 closers waaaayyyyyy too early. Its gross. I love your 17th, 18th and 19th round picks. I sat on Neimann and Stubbs too long. Great bookend to your draft. GRADE: B-

No Glove No Love
1. (6) Matt Wieters - keeper.
2. (15) Ryan Howard - keeper.
3. (26) Aaron Hill - keeper.
4. (35) Adam Lind - keeper.
5. (46) Jacoby Ellsbury - keeper.
6. (55) Tommy Hanson - keeper.
7. (66) Kevin Youkilis
8. (75) Jimmy Rollins
9. (86) Heath Bell
10. (95) Derrek Lee
11. (106) Michael Bourn
12. (115) Jair Jurrjens
13. (126) Jay Bruce
14. (135) Edwin Jackson
15. (146) James Shields
16. (155) Neftali Feliz
17. (166) Ervin Santana
18. (175) Rich Harden
19. (186) Rickie Weeks
20. (195) Ricky Romero

Like SeenBaseball, a great group of keepers has set you up well this season. Personally, I would have kept Cain and dropped Lind (Morales, Morneau and Dunn were all available) but I didn’t hurt you – just preference. Are you banking on Bell being a top 3 closer this year? Do you know something the rest of us don’t? You drafted a middle of the road closer before a number #2 (or #3 or #4) pitcher! You did draft a lot of upside type pitchers later but that’s a big gamble just to take an average closer to fill a roster spot. However, you may never lose the runs and sb categories with Ellsbury and Bourn on your team. I like the Shields and Feliz picks as well. I had Neftali last year and his peripherals are off the charts. A lot of upside with this team, could be a contender this year. GRADE: B-

Desiccated Dingoes
1. (7) Joe Mauer - keeper.
2. (14) Albert Pujols - keeper.
3. (27) Zack Greinke - keeper.
4. (34) Johnny Damon - keeper.
5. (47) Vladimir Guerrero - keeper.
6. (54) Jonathan Broxton - keeper.
7. (67) Javier Vázquez
8. (74) Joe Nathan
9. (87) Brian Roberts
10. (94) Andrew McCutchen
11. (107) Nelson Cruz
12. (114) Michael Young
13. (127) Scott Baker
14. (134) Ryan Dempster
15. (147) Gavin Floyd
16. (154) Alexei Ramírez
17. (167) Lance Berkman
18. (174) Nate McLouth
19. (187) Ryan Ludwick
20. (194) David Ortiz

Tough to grade an auto draft so Ill just comment on your keepers and the potential of your team overall. After Mauer, Pujols and Greinke your other three keepers are hideous. A fucking closer, a past his prime slugger on wonky legs and a way past his prime outfielder who I think is a 1B/DH this year. You had Vazquez and BJ Upton didn’t you? Should have kept them instead of Guererro and Damon. The auto draft actually selected you a decent team overall though (Joe Nathan notwithstanding). In fact, it ended up being a better draft than a few guys who actually showed up last week. Vazquez (lucky), Cruz, McCutcheon, Baker and Ramierez should all be major cogs on your team. You are in better shape than you should be for a draftee no show. GRADE: N/A

Payne-Trayne
1. (8) Tim Lincecum - keeper.
2. (13) Chris Carpenter - keeper.
3. (28) Jon Lester - keeper.
4. (33) Ben Zobrist - keeper.
5. (48) Víctor Martínez - keeper.
6. (53) José Reyes - keeper.
7. (68) Mark Reynolds
8. (73) Jayson Werth
9. (88) Curtis Granderson
10. (93) Aramis Ramírez
11. (108) Ubaldo Jiménez
12. (113) Josh Hamilton
13. (128) Alfonso Soriano
14. (133) John Danks
15. (148) Rick Porcello
16. (153) Mark Buehrle
17. (168) Stephen Drew
18. (173) Chris Coghlan
19. (188) Phil Hughes
20. (193) Francisco Liriano

Great, great keepers. Your first 5 draft picks were also top shelf, really rounded out your team well. Hammer is a good risk-reward pick and if he can stay healthy he might have a monster season in that Texas lineup. Aside from Porcello and Hughes, your last 8 picks were very boring. You’d have been better served drafting some high upside guys like Heyward, Stubbs, Strasberg, Matusz etc. But overall a rock solid draft. GRADE: B+

HGH Allstars
1. (9) Chase Utley - keeper.
2. (12) David Wright - keeper.
3. (29) Matt Holliday - keeper.
4. (32) Matt Kemp - keeper.
5. (49) Clayton Kershaw - keeper.
6. (52) Troy Tulowitzki - keeper.
7. (69) Cole Hamels
8. (72) B.J. Upton
9. (89) Ricky Nolasco
10. (92) Manny Ramírez
11. (109) Carlos Peña
12. (112) José Valverde
13. (129) Billy Butler
14. (132) Carlos Mármol
15. (149) Roy Oswalt
16. (152) Carlos Beltrán
17. (169) Kurt Suzuki
18. (172) Johnny Cueto
19. (189) Travis Snider
20. (192) Cameron Maybin

Another great group of keepers, perhaps the best 1-6 in the pool. 2nd, 3rd and SS are filled with studs, 2 top flight OF’s (Kemp could be even better this year!) and Kershaw is on the verge of something special. However, aside from your last three picks (and Nolasco) your entire draft was very uninspired. I understand that you were secure at every position of scarcity outside of catcher (Kurt Suzuki? Bleh) but you passed on a lot guys who have massive upside for name players with suspect credentials. If your top 7 or 8 weren’t so incredible you’d be in for a long season. Based on your non-keeper draft I’d grade you a D but overall…. GRADE: B-